huey lewis's 'sports'

somebody. let's talk about this game.

boring science stuff ahead part one

GROSS.

I've been reading a lot lately about one of my favorite subjects, neuroscience, in conjunction with sports. I am fascinated by sports: statistics, drafts, the whole shebang, but woefully undereducated about it. thankfully I am seeing someone who seems to be able to answer any random question I have about a player or team or rule. also, he knows a lot about beer. hmm.

I also like reading about probability, and how randomness rules the roost. so neuroscience, probability, and sports combined make for some interesting thoughts. like an analysis of whether in basketball, a player's 'hot streak' is actually real. it's amazing how much the idea of psyching oneself out effects gameplay. I found out that the fake nature of basketball shooting streaks was first demonstrated by Amos Tversky and Thomas Gilovich, a psychologist at Cornell. they began the investigation by sifting through years of Philadelphia 76er statistics. They looked at every single shot taken by ever single player, and recorded whether or not that shot had been preceded by a string of hits or misses. If "the hot hand" was a real phenomenon, then players should have a higher field goal percentage after making several previous shots. The streak should, hypothetically, improve their game! *full disclosure, I don't even know if the 76ers are still a team, or if they are any good. but apparently they were ridiculously amazing for a time being.

the dudes found there was absolutely no evidence of "the hot hand". a guy's chance of making a shot was not affected by whether or not their previous shots had gone in. each field goal (again something I thought was only in football) attempt was its own independent event. the short runs experienced by the 76ers were no different than the short runs that naturally emerge from any random process. jumpshots were like flipping a coin. the streaks were a figment of our imagination.

Andrew Toney, the shooting guard, was particularly hard to convince: during the regular season, Tooney made 46 percent of all of his shots. after hitting three shots in a row--a sure sign that he was now "in the zone"--Tooney's field goal percentage dropped to 34 percent. when Tooney thought he was "hot," he was actually freezing cold. and when he thought he was cold, he was just getting warmed up: after missing three shots in a row, Tooney made 52 percent of his shots, which was significantly higher than his normal average.


now if all this jazz about the 76ers isn't interesting, because maybe you're lame, or maybe you're a loyalist, let's check out the Bird-era Celtics. his time, they looked at free throw attempts, and not just field goals. the science dudes found absolutely no evidence of hot hands. Larry Bird was just like Andrew Tooney: after making several free throws in a row, his free throw percentage actually declined. Bird got dumb, and started missing shots he should have made.

apparently there was always one exception to the hot-hand rule, and that is Dimaggio's 56 game hitting streak in 1941. but the 1940's was lamesauce and I'm more interested in mustachioed basketball players with shorts up to their balls and goofy faces. *ps, Stephen Jay Gould, famous science dude and guest star on the Simpsons, proved that even a 56 game hitting streak will naturally emerge from the history of baseball.......



*well that was fun. I feel smarter now. too smart, even. so I now I need to go think about items I might like to purchase.

oh boy Flipsy! you and I are going on a road trip!

since music just wants to be my first, my last, my everything, so one sentence new record opinions:
* new Cursive 'Mama I'm Swollen', is good if you like Cursive. check.
* new Neko Case 'Middle Cyclone', is great, no matter what, according to myself and 2 other friends opinions whom I respect regarding music.
* new Dan Deacon 'Bromst', is fun if you like electronic noisy stuff
* new Thermals 'Now We Can See', is unfuckwithable indie pop punk for the everywoman and man

I have not heard the new Decemberists and honestly am not excited to. I really don't like them much, and what I've read of this new album sounds sick and barfy and like it both sucks and blows. and somehow the new U2 album is getting confused with the second coming of Jesus, so I guess I have to listen to that too.

a playlist, to get through another Wednesday:

David Bowie - Ashes to Ashes
Plaid - Gellab
Pavement - Strings of Nashville
The Kinks - Two Sisters
Squarepusher - Iambic 5 Poetry
Guess Who - Somewhere Up High
Bat For Lashes - A Forest
Final Fantasy - Blue Imelda
BRian Eno - Sombre Reptiles
The United States of America - Coming Down
The Ramones - We Want The Airwaves
Sloan - Iggy and Angus
Jay-Z - When Money Goes


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I'm obsessed with my ex boyfriends bed. that sounds bad, but it's not. he gave it to me while we were still together, and it's my bed in my apartment. it's very shitty now, all flat and thin. but it's become so comfortable to me. give me a black cherry yacht club soda, a cartoon on the tv, and that bed and I'm gold. bonus points if mark d kisses me on the cheek somewhere in there.

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back to music for a second: I want someone to become the new Dr. Demento. for real. I used to listen to him and the nerd in me would swell up like some sort of sac. eww. someone make me a list of newer songs that would be like something Bart Simpson's nemesis, Dr. D would do.


ummmmm can I say, I am in a March Madness bracket pool thingy, alongsie Mark D, and I'm in second place? it's still very very early, but I'm pretty jazzed on my standings. I'm such a grotsky little ghoul!



E! did an interview with Will Arnett, talking about the Arrested Development movie. everyone is confirmed in it, and they are hoping to have it all done by the end of this year for sure! I'm psyched. I hope it's better than other shitty tv movies, like Fire Walk With Me, the Twin Peaks movie

*also, Katy Perry dating Josh Groban is like herpes getting AIDS. just sayin'.